On Mon, 21 Aug 2023 13:15:25 +0700, John B. <
sloc...@gmail.com>
wrote:
(chomp)
>Well... one cannot argue with the video's author but the same argument
>is valid for almost anything. Electric cars... your car breaks down in
>a remote part of, oh say, Maine,. Can the local mechanic fix it? After
>all he is "Hell on wheels" with a diesel marine engine...
I was the "local mechanic" for PC's (personal computers) starting in
1984. I knew a little about them, which made me an expert compared to
what some of my competitors knew. I muddled along, leveraging my past
experience and learned by destroying. The nice part is that I was
able to charge desperate customers for my computer education. Looking
back at the experience, it was a circus. Manufacturers were offering
worthless certifications. Tech support was useless. Software
companies were trying to turn everyone into programmers. Documentation
was written by programmers for programmers, not users. Clone hardware
was mostly unreliable junk. Nothing worked perfectly and everything
had bugs. Rebooting several times per hour was typical.
Should electronic shifting ever become the next big thing, I predict
that it will follow the same pattern. People will buy overpriced
hardware and whomever they can to keep it working. Any wrench jockey,
that knows something about electronics, will magically be transformed
into a bicycle electronics wizard, complete with a bag of magic tricks
and cannibalized parts. By then, there will also be Di2 clones, which
offer reduced reliability at a substantially reduced cost. Eventually,
that will become a mass market. That's a rough approximation of how
the eBike sales and service market is going.
Shimano seems to be doing their best to keep the Di2 a high priced
niche product and out of the hands of the GUM (great unwashed masses).
They've equipped their racing teams with Di2:
<
https://road.shimano.com/us/stories/10-years-of-innovation>
If their teams appear to be winning, Di2 might become a de facto
standard in pro racing, exactly like disk brakes are now a de facto
standard. At the high prices that Shimano is charging, that high end
market seems to be able to sustain 10 years of research and
improvements. My guess(tm) is that they will continue on the same
path, eventually producing an all electronic bicycle with Shimano
dominated standards based wiring, connectors and data protocols.
Shimano has already done some of that for the Di2 in the eBike market:
<
https://bike.shimano.com/en-US/information/news/introducing-shimano-cues-di2-for-e-bike-platforms-.html>
"For those who would rather focus on the ride or desire a hassle-free
commute..."